This is information on my hobby. This is not investment advice. I am going into these trades planning to lose all of my seed money. Please consult a financial professional before doing any investing or trading.
Where I am today
I admit, in the beginning I did not keep very good records. So I am starting fresh with what I have.
I started out with around $1,200 dollars and saw it reduced to $600 or so with the crash last week.
I am up around $45.42 in 20 completed trades. I have about a 2% rate of return, more on that in the next section.
My total cash right now is $688.56.
I am trying to do 2 trades per day this year, with an average return of 2.5%.
This would be completely unrealistic. That would come to be about 28 billion dollars.
Lets look at some maths!
A compounded return is calculated using this formula
A = Principal + Interest
P = Principal
R = Annual Rate as a decimal
N = Number of compounding Periods per Unit of Time
T = Time in Decimal Years
A = P * ( 1 + R/N) ^ ( N * T)
So we can play with this a bit and come up with this
T always = 1. I am not compounding in time, I am compounding per trade. N = the number of trades I am making.
Suffice it to say even a small percentage gain over almost 1,000 iterations is massive. In fact eventually you would begin moving the market with your trades alone as often only 20-30 thousand dollars would have huge effects on the markets.
Also the more money you have in the game, the bigger the swings are. Not to mention sometimes you get stuck in bad trades waiting for the price to go back up so instead of 2-3 trades per day I get 1 per week.
So I have the ludicrous goal of making 1.25 million dollars trading this year. Will it happen? Probably not. I know this. This is just for me to have some fun with money and numbers. Think of this as my gambling money for the year.
I primarily use Coinbase Pro. While the fee's might seem high compared to Gemini, they lower the fees based on the volume of your trades over the last 30 days. Right now my taker fee is 0.25% and my maker fee is 0.15%.
I am usually a taker when I buy and a maker when I sell. The reason is when I buy I usually buy at the current market price. Then I set a limit order to sell for a percentage gain in the future.
As you can see in the past 30 days I have moved around 65,000 dollars worth of Crypto even though my account is under 1,000 dollars. For the most part except when the market crashed and I lost half my pool I have been making money on my trades.
Since I started tracking these are my last 20 or so trades. The ones in green being ones that I have completed.
My main tool is Trading View. You can see one of my windows below.
When making a trade I look for a few criteria.
Over a 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 minute time slices I like to see the following.
- Moving 50 day average above moving 200 day average
- Price within the Bollinger bands
- Trending upwards
- Rising MACD
- RSI Below 60